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2018年2月
一些自然灾害 (打开叠加) 在2017年登上了全国头条，包括但不限于飓风 哈维 和 厄玛. 哈维在科珀斯克里斯蒂附近登陆, 8月25日德克萨斯州, 随后艾玛在库乔岛登陆, 9月10日佛罗里达. 休斯顿和迈阿密，我们追踪的两个城市，都在他们的路线上. 这些风暴的代价是巨大的, 包括生命损失, 对公共卫生和安全基础设施的破坏, 以及持久资本资产的破坏. Estimates of the damage costs from 哈维 和 厄玛 were $125 和 $50 billion, respectively.1 The storms also damaged short-term economic activity through the slowing of local commerce. To better underst和 the impact 和 scope of the local commerce slowdowns in these areas, 澳博官方网站app研究所利用了月度本地消费者商业指数, our measure of de-identified year-over-year consumer spending growth across 14 metro areas.
休斯顿市区的本地消费商业下降了7%.2016年8月至2017年8月(哈维“登陆月”)期间的5%. 2017年9月(哈维“复苏月”)开始复苏。, 当时休斯顿当地商业的年增长率为9%.3%. The increase in spending by consumers at Houston businesses in the recovery month more than offset the decline in spending from the l和fall month. 飓风厄玛的影响 与哈维飓风不同. In September 2017 (the 厄玛 “l和fall month”), local commerce in Miami declined by 3.7%. 相比之下，2017年10月(艾尔玛“复苏月”)的同比增长为2%.4%.
图1:跟随各自的登陆, 飓风哈维和厄玛导致当地商业急剧下降
The magnitude of the net spending decline in the wake of a hurricane can be seen when comparing Houston 和 Miami to the 12 other metro areas we track. In the period between January 2014 和 July 2017 (the month before 哈维’s l和fall), 休斯顿的增长与其他大都市区的增长相当相关. The same could be said of Miami’s relationship to the 12 other LCC metros over the period between January 2014 和 August 2017. As can be seen in Figure 1, the arrival of the hurricanes disrupted this relationship significantly. 在哈维和厄玛登陆的几个月里, 大多数城市的当地商业增长都高于前一个月, 而休斯顿和迈阿密则出现了大幅下降.
平均, 2014年1月至2017年7月期间, local commerce growth in Houston lagged the average growth from the 12 other LCC metros by approximately 1.一个百分点. Over the January 2014 to August 2017 period, Miami led other metros by approximately 0.4%. Figure 2 shows the magnitude of the drop in l和fall months, relative to other metros. 休斯顿落后于其他低成本航空公司的地铁8个百分点.1个百分点，迈阿密落后8个百分点.两个百分点. 在最初登陆后的恢复阶段, 休斯顿和迈阿密领先其余城市约4个.8和3.分别为2个百分点.
The initial declines in local commerce, relative to other metros, were similar in Houston 和 Miami. 然而, 这些风暴在许多重要方面有所不同, which may have led to some of the differences in distributional impact across metros. 如图3所示, 哈维 had a more direct 和 sustained impact on the Houston metro region because after the initial l和fall near Corpus Christi, 哈维 continued to pull water from the Gulf of Mexico as it traveled east along the coast. 相比之下, 飓风“厄玛”主要沿佛罗里达州西部地区移动, (在某种程度上)使迈阿密免受风暴的全面冲击. 从测量的角度来看, 重要的是要记住，LCCI是每月报告一次, 这些风暴在一个月的不同时间首次登陆. 哈维首次登陆是在8月25日, 这意味着支出下降主导了大部分观察到的支出变化. 厄玛 had a different profile, making its initial l和fall in Florida on September 10. Consequently, much of 厄玛’s recovery will be included in the net monthly figure for September.
图3:哈维和厄玛飓风的大致路径
虽然风暴的总体影响是相似的, 与其他低成本城市的增长相比, 影响的分布有所不同. 下面我们将探讨其中的一些差异, using data from the Local Consumer Commerce summary file we make available on the 澳博官方网站app 研究所 website. 摘要文件还包括按收入和消费者位置划分的增长, 还有业务规模. Figures 4 和 5, along with Table 1, depict growth by age of the consumer in Houston 和 Miami.
图4:休斯顿几乎所有年龄段的消费者在8月份都减少了支出
- 在休斯顿, none of the consumer groups made positive contributions to growth in August 2017; consumers between 45 和 54 subtracted the most from overall growth at 2.两个百分点
- 所有年龄段的消费者都对2017年9月的增长做出了贡献, 25至34岁的消费者贡献最多，为2.4%
Figure 5: Unlike Houston, Some Consumers Continued to See Growth in Miami in the L和fall Month
- In Miami, while most consumers subtracted from growth in September 2017, consumers under 25 added 0.3个百分点的增长
- 2017年10月, 只有45岁至64岁的消费者较前一年减少了支出, 减去组合后的0.比增长率低3个百分点
图6:休斯顿消费者在2017年8月购买的燃料比2016年8月更多
- 在休斯顿, spending on fuel made a positive contribution to growth in August 2017, adding 0.两个百分点 to overall growth; we believe this is a 预购的后果
- 耐用品支出, 不耐用的, 其他服务, 和 restaurants all declined sharply in August 2017; spending on 其他服务 was the largest drag on growth, 减去2.一个百分点
- 2017年9月，消费者在所有产品类型上的支出都有所增加, 耐用品购买对整体增长的贡献最大，为4%.7个百分点
图7:2017年9月迈阿密消费者在非耐用品上的支出增加
- 相对于前一年, consumers in Miami increased spending on nondurable goods in September 2017 (adding 1.7个百分点 to overall growth) 和 decreased spending on the same product type in October 2017 (subtracting 1 percentage point from overall growth)
- 支出 at restaurants declined the most out of all product types in September 2017, 减去2.比整体增长低4个百分点
自然灾害不仅是对生命和财产的威胁, 而是一个都市区的经济活力. Policy makers are often faced with the difficult task of determining where 和 when to allocate relief resources with limited data. By furnishing insights based upon the administrative data collected by 追逐 on a daily basis, the 澳博官方网站app 研究所 hopes to provide a helpful resource for public officials, 非营利组织人员, 以及寻求支持灾后恢复的企业主.
致谢
We thank our research analyst, Bryan Kim, for his hard work 和 contributions to this research.
This effort would not have been possible without the critical support of the 澳博官方网站app Intelligent Solutions team of data experts, 包括加比·马拉诺, Stella Ng, 迈克尔Harasimowicz, 还有比尔·鲍尔斯比, 以及包括凯特琳·莱加基在内的澳博官方网站app研究所团队成员, 考特尼黑客, 颊严厉, Sruthi饶, Alyssa Flaschner, 朱莉Spiegelman, Natalie Holmes和Kelly Benoit.
我们要感谢澳博官方网站app的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙 & Co., for his vision 和 leadership in establishing the 研究所 和 enabling the ongoing research agenda. 还有来自整个公司的支持，尤其是彼得·谢尔, Len Laufer, 马克斯Neukirchen, 帕特里克•Ringstroem, Joyce Chang, 和 Judy Miller—the 研究所 has had the resources 和 support to pioneer a new approach to contribute to global economic analysis 和 insight.
建议引用
法雷尔、戴安娜和小马文·沃德. “哈维飓风过后的当地消费商业.澳博官方网站app研究所.
